Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University and a renowned election predictor known for correctly forecasting nine out of the last ten elections, provided insight into the reasons his renowned “13 keys” framework failed to foresee Donald Trump’s victory over Kamala Harris.
“As I mentioned, unexpected events can disrupt the norm. We can encounter extraordinary occurrences that alter the patterns established over the past 160 years. That’s precisely what transpired,” Lichtman stated in an interview with NewsNation’s Chris Cuomo on Monday.
Feeling somewhat awkward, Lichtman withdrew his predictive model around 10:30 p.m. on Election Night last Tuesday and expressed his intent to spend time analyzing the reasons behind his miscalculation. Nearly a week later, the professor shared his thoughts on the election outcomes with the NewsNation host, detailing two significant factors that complicated his predictive model.
Lichtman primarily attributed the disruption to disinformation, specifically naming two sources responsible: “You mentioned a grievance-oriented election, but much of that grievance stemmed from disinformation. It begins with Fox News and other conservative media. Additionally, conservative podcasters boasting millions of views played a role. However, this time we witnessed something unprecedented—the $300 billion mogul, Elon Musk, leveraging his power on X, formerly known as Twitter.”
He elaborated that voters were bombarded with “extensive disinformation” on a range of subjects, which included employment, immigration, joblessness, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, and even aid for hurricane victims.
The second aspect Lichtman identified was rooted in what he described as the “darker chapters of American history”—factors such as “racism, misogyny, xenophobia, and antisemitism.”
Cuomo countered the professor’s claims, noting Trump’s significant improvements among non-white voter groups, including demographics where Republicans typically struggle, such as Black men and Latino men and women.
“The Democrats fell short because they didn’t perform well enough, Allan,” Cuomo remarked. “They misjudged the main factors motivating the voters and consequently fell short.” Lichtman appeared to concur with the host, reiterating that disinformation was indeed a key factor impacting voters across all demographics.
Lichtman conveyed his intentions to reevaluate his renowned “13 keys” model, mentioning to Cuomo that he might incorporate additional elements into his approach.
“I’ve acknowledged my mistakes; I’ve recognized that the keys may not be effective,” Lichtman commented. “Keep in mind that the foundation of the keys is the assumption that a rational, practical electorate determines if the governing party in the White House has performed adequately to warrant another term. However, if public perceptions of the governing party are significantly influenced by disinformation, particularly from those wealthy enough to exert influence more than others, then perhaps the underlying premise of the keys requires modification.”
Or Professor Lichtman might just admit he was plain wrong this time out…
