Republican hardliner and Texas Senator Ted Cruz may jeopardize his party’s opportunity to take over the Senate, as cautioned by the GOP super PAC responsible for securing the chamber in November.
A memo from the Senate Leadership Fund, acquired by Politico, reveals that the PAC’s internal polling has the outspoken podcaster Cruz at 48 percent, merely a single percentage point ahead of his Democratic contender Colin Allred.
Last month, Cruz held a three-point advantage according to the survey. Furthermore, support for the incumbent senator in Texas lags behind that for former president Donald Trump by two points—Trump enjoys 50 percent support, leading Vice President Kamala Harris by five points in the state.
“Since early August, Colin Allred has significantly outspent Ted Cruz on television advertisements, tightening the multicandidate ballot to just one point,” the memo indicates, stating that other GOP groups, including a specific super PAC for Cruz, are working to close the spending gap. We will be monitoring new media placements closely and expect to provide updated polling results next week,”
Cruz faces allegations in FEC complaints suggesting he made a dubious arrangement to channel hundreds of thousands of dollars from the firm that hosts his thrice-weekly podcast to a super PAC supporting his campaign. He asserts that he produces the podcast in a “volunteer” capacity.
Democrats previously invested significant—and extraordinarily costly—resources into unseating the Texas senator during his last reelection campaign in 2018; he ultimately prevailed by 2.6 percentage points, a stark contrast to his nearly 16-point margin of victory during his initial election in 2012.
The Leadership Forum’s memo states that nearly all of its candidates in potentially competitive seats are trailing their Democratic opponents. This includes Eric Hovde in Wisconsin, Dave McCormick in Pennsylvania, Bernie Moreno in Ohio, Sam Brown in Nevada, Mike Rogers in Michigan, Larry Hogan in Maryland, and Kari Lake in Arizona.
Despite this, Republicans are still projected to flip the Senate, with Tim Sheehy in Montana polling four points ahead of incumbent Democrat Sen. Jon Tester. A recent New York Times/Siena poll from last week gave Sheehy a seven-point lead.
However, another unforeseen challenge has emerged for the GOP, as noted in the memo, which highlights Nebraska as “a serious trouble zone” where polls indicate Sen. Deb Fischer is in a tight race with Independent candidate Dan Osborn, who aligns with Bernie Sanders. Surveys conducted by both Fischer and Osborn’s campaigns have depicted their candidates in a favorable position.
“We are currently conducting polls to evaluate if intervention is needed to safeguard the seat,” the memo concludes.
