Kamala Harris appears to have struggled with voter turnout in the latest election, particularly when compared to the high numbers seen in previous cycles. In many counties, Donald Trump saw an increase in votes, outperforming his 2020 numbers, while Harris lagged behind President Joe Biden’s margins from that year.
As of Wednesday afternoon, over 2,700 counties had reported nearly complete results. A POLITICO analysis of these results revealed that nearly 1,100 counties saw a rise in voter turnout compared to 2020. Trump improved his vote total in 99% of these counties, signaling a strong mobilization of his base, rather than just shifting swing voters.
Geographic patterns further highlight the disparity. Red counties—areas that Trump won decisively in 2020—were much more likely to see turnout increases than blue counties. In fact, many deep-blue areas saw voter participation drop. Notably, Cuyahoga County in Ohio (home to Cleveland) and Harris County in Texas (which includes Houston) saw fewer ballots cast compared to four years ago, despite Harris holding a rally in Houston just weeks before the election.
This turnout discrepancy helps explain why Trump was able to secure a dominant win, as red regions showed significant increases in voter engagement, while blue counties did not see the same momentum. POLITICO’s analysis found that in more than 2,000 solidly red counties where Trump won at least 60% of the vote, 42% reported higher turnout than in 2020. In contrast, only 13% of the 150 solidly blue counties with near-final results saw an increase in votes.
While overall turnout is expected to rise in the coming weeks as more ballots are counted, the current trends suggest strong GOP enthusiasm and a more subdued Democratic performance. That said, the situation was not uniform across all regions. In battleground states, particularly those with significant Democratic infrastructure, turnout held up better. For example, in Wisconsin’s Milwaukee and Dane counties, turnout was roughly on par with 2020 levels, reflecting the party’s efforts to engage voters in these critical areas.
However, in Pennsylvania, the picture was more mixed. Turnout in Philadelphia—traditionally a Democratic stronghold—appears to have dipped, while rural and suburban counties like York, Butler, and Schuylkill saw increases. This shift in voter engagement in more conservative regions was key to Trump’s victory in the state.
Overall, the data suggests that Trump’s campaign was able to mobilize its base more effectively than Harris and the Democratic side, particularly in areas where turnout is a crucial factor. This dynamic could have significant implications for future election strategies, as voter engagement in key regions continues to shape the political landscape.
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