The introduction of new devices and alternatives to cigarettes in the European Union is creating an uneven map of tobacco consumption. While in countries such as Greece, Bulgaria, or Croatia, the smoking rate exceeds 30%, in the United Kingdom it is already approaching 10%; in Norway and the Netherlands, the number of smokers is already below that percentage and in Sweden it has even been reduced to less than 5%, with cigarettes considered to be eradicated in the country.
But what is really happening? Why are some countries reducing consumption and others not? Dr. Anders Milton, a physician with extensive experience in public service, consultant, founder, and CEO of Milton Consulting, explains that the secret lies in the development of new products.
Milton, who includes positions such as president of the Swedish Medical Association or the Red Cross in this country, cites the example of what has happened with snus, whose consumption in the European Union is only allowed in Sweden. These are small packets that are held between the gums and mouth tissues, containing tobacco and nicotine, but which, according to Swedish health authorities, are less harmful than cigarettes as they are smoke-free.
“Countries that are adopting measures favorable to new smokeless devices are achieving a greater decrease in the percentage of smokers. Thus, cigarette consumption has decreased by 50% in Sweden since 2014, 48% in New Zealand, 44% in Iceland, 36% in Norway, 33% in Japan, and 29% in the United Kingdom,” Milton says. In contrast, in those countries where the marketing of alternative products to cigarettes is prohibited, the decline is much smaller. In Turkey, for example, the decrease is only 2%; in Mauritania, 6%, and in Argentina, 8%. In Spain, the percentage of smokers has dropped by nine points during this century, but is now stagnant at around 22%, higher than the European Union, and the government’s health policy is moving in a direction opposite to that adopted by, for example, Scandinavian countries, equating cigarettes with alternative products, even in terms of taxation.
A survey conducted by the opinion research firm Povaddo for Philip Morris International (PMI), interviewing over 14,000 adults in 13 European Union member states, shows how Europeans have strong opinions on how governments should handle these new products, both at the national level and in the EU as a whole.
“69% of respondents believe that adult smokers should receive accurate and scientifically based information that smokeless alternatives to cigarettes are less harmful than continuing to smoke, even though these alternatives are not risk-free,” explains William Stewart, president of Povaddo.
In his opinion, “EU policies seem more focused on an unrealistic goal, the complete eradication of nicotine consumption, while the majority of the population is receptive to the pragmatic concept of reducing tobacco harm and encouraging smokers to use less harmful nicotine products.”
Philip Morris International (PMI), the world’s largest tobacco company and owner of brands such as Marlboro, LM, or Chesterfield, presents medical and scientific studies to demonstrate that alternatives are potentially less harmful, up to 90%. Convinced of this, in 2008 it launched a plan to minimize cigarette dependence. “Since then, the company has invested $12.5 billion – $1.8 billion in just the last fiscal year – with the goal of accelerating the development of new smoke-free electronic devices, such as the Iqos,” explains Tommaso Di Giovani, the company’s international Communication vice president. At the end of the last fiscal year, 36.4% of the company’s net revenue already comes from smoke-free products, and the global objective is for them to represent two-thirds of revenue by 2030. But when will cigarettes disappear then.”
The disappearance of cigarettes
Di Giovani acknowledges that it is difficult to know, but predicts that it is something that “will probably happen in the next ten or fifteen years.” For now, the company has launched an industrial transformation plan with the opening of 11 factories in recent years for the production of these smoke-free alternative products. Seven of them are in Europe, and considering the plans to open more, one possibility being considered is Spain. “It is a very important market for us, and we are evaluating it, although the current consumption level is low,” admits the executive. The plant would require an investment of between 500 and 1.2 billion euros and would be the first of its kind in Spain.
According to the latest Annual Integrated Report presented by Philip Morris in Paris, smoke-free products are already available in 84 markets, and in 25 of them, they already account for over 50% of the tobacco company’s revenue. This is the case in Japan, Italy, Greece, or Portugal. “2023 has been a year marked by unity, determination, and ongoing commitment to our vision of a smoke-free future,” said Jacek Olczak, group CEO. “As we face new challenges, the resilience of our people, their exceptional talent, and the depth of their purpose ensure that we are well-equipped to continue our journey, pursuing progress, embracing innovation, and fostering sustainability as we transform for the better.”
