The S&P 500 has risen in 10 of the last 11 months.
The S&P 500 has gained in 9 of the last 10 weeks.
The S&P 500 has experienced an increase for 5 consecutive months.
The S&P 500 has shown growth for 6 straight weeks.
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) October 18, 2024
The stock market’s upward momentum is relentless, with leading Wall Street experts revising their predictions for the S&P 500 higher. Numerous bank research teams have elevated their price assumptions in light of the index’s rising trajectory, which has recorded a 3% boost over the past month and a remarkable 23% surge year-to-date, achieving 46 record highs in 2024. Analysts from renowned firms like Goldman Sachs, UBS, BMO, and Deutsche Bank have substantially increased their year-end price forecasts for the S&P 500.
GOLDMAN: Will the $9.5 trillion held in money market assets flow into the stock market?
“.. conclusion: don’t hold your breath, as historical patterns indicate that capital typically flows into — rather than out of — money markets during Fed easing cycles.” $SPX pic.twitter.com/TVNDtZjkFR
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) October 20, 2024
UBS analysts Jonathan Golub and Patrick Palfrey have adjusted their target upward from 5,600 to 5,850, marking their fourth adjustment since the end of the previous year. Goldman Sachs’ leading equity strategist, David Kostin, has also revised his target to 6,000 by year-end, citing a consistent macro outlook and enhanced margin growth. BMO’s head equity strategist, Brian Belski, recently upped his prediction from 5,600 to 6,100, motivated by robust market performance and expectations for additional growth in the fourth quarter.
S&P 500 ETF Total Returns…
1-Year: +38%
2-Year: +62%
3-Year: +37%
5-Year: +111%
7-Year: +156%
10-Year: +274%
15-Year: +609%
20-Year: +665%
30-Year: +2,040% (+10.8% annualized)$SPYhttps://t.co/mpJBYGzNyy pic.twitter.com/RPOPZe4w9V— Charlie Bilello (@charliebilello) October 19, 2024
Optimistic Analyst Targets for the S&P 500
Deutsche Bank has adjusted its end-of-year target for the S&P 500 from 5,500 to 5,750, attributing the revision to solid corporate earnings, increasing stock buybacks, and improving risk sentiment. These positive projections are supported by encouraging data, including a strong jobs report from September.
Historically, when the S&P 500 concludes October with a trailing-month return exceeding 10% (currently 15%), it’s bullish news! This scenario has occurred 12 times since 1950, and in every case, the $SPX ended up finishing November and December positively, with an average gain of 7.4%! pic.twitter.com/exi06wceMN
— Barchart (@Barchart) October 19, 2024
Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, chief equity strategist at JPMorgan, indicates that investors should consider a less cautious approach in light of current market dynamics. Nevertheless, various risks loom large, including the upcoming U.S. presidential elections in November, ambiguous monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, mixed economic indicators, and geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East. UBS analysts express cautious optimism, warning that “Fiscal and monetary policy uncertainties, along with potential election results, render 2025 returns uncertain.”
Despite these looming risks, the recent strong performance of the market and optimistic strategic outlooks continue to bolster investor confidence as the S&P 500 sustains its upward movement.
As the bull market progresses, investors will remain vigilant for any unexpected developments that may further amplify stock market gains in the months ahead.
