The mid-19th century was marked by the gold rush, with massive investments flowing into mining. The early 20th century was driven by the oil boom, as demand for petroleum surged and new reserves were discovered across the nation. While broadcast spectrum may not be as precious as gold or as versatile as oil, it’s beginning to gain attention as a potentially valuable asset by 2025, sparking what could be called the Broadcast Land Grab.
Under the incoming Trump administration, deregulation is a top priority, and this is creating optimism among the owners of local TV stations, such as Nexstar, Sinclair, Gray, E.W. Scripps, and Tegna. Industry leaders are excited about the possibilities. After the election, earnings calls from broadcasters reflected a collective sigh of relief. Sinclair CEO Chris Ripley expressed confidence, stating that “a cloud over the industry is lifting,” while Tegna CEO Mike Steib and Nexstar CEO Perry Sook echoed similar sentiments, highlighting the need for regulatory changes. They believe deregulation will open the door to industry consolidation and greater profitability.
Wall Street is already adjusting to this shift. Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall upgraded Sinclair’s stock, anticipating that a Republican-led Federal Communications Commission (FCC) could reduce restrictions and encourage consolidation among broadcasters. Some of the most significant potential changes include relaxing the “duopoly” rules, which limit the number of stations one company can own in a market, and applying the “UHF Discount,” which allows broadcasters to buy more stations in the UHF frequency range. These outdated rules, established before the rise of streaming, hinder broadcasters from competing in today’s digital landscape.
Broadcasters are also frustrated by the dominance of Big Tech companies like Google and Meta, which have captured much of the advertising revenue that once went to local stations. With Google earning 50 times more ad revenue than local broadcasters, and platforms like TikTok drawing young viewers away from traditional TV, station owners are pushing for regulatory changes to level the playing field. Tegna’s Steib lamented that while tech companies thrive, TV stations remain restricted from expanding into new markets, like Waco, Texas.
To compete with these tech giants, broadcasters are pushing for changes that would require Congressional approval, most notably the removal of the national ownership cap. Currently, broadcast station owners are limited to owning stations that reach 39% of TV households. If lifted, broadcasters could expand nationwide, likely leading to a dominant national network.
Nexstar, in particular, is seen as a prime candidate to become a national powerhouse. Led by Perry Sook, the company has already made significant national moves, such as launching the NewsNation cable channel and acquiring The CW network. Other broadcasters like Sinclair and Tegna may also look to buy or sell stations based on shareholder interests. However, Nexstar’s ambition to grow may allow it to seize a larger market share if the ownership cap is lifted.
If these regulatory changes go through, a major land grab could unfold, particularly in smaller markets, where family-owned stations may struggle to compete against larger broadcasters. Alan Wolk, founder of TVREV, predicts that fewer independent stations will remain in local markets as bigger players like Nexstar, Sinclair, and Tegna expand their holdings. Smaller stations may be forced to sell to survive.
This shift could also exacerbate tensions between local TV stations and national networks like ABC, CBS, and NBC. National networks negotiate streaming deals for affiliates, but with their own platforms—such as Hulu, Peacock, and Paramount+—they may eventually prioritize their own streaming services over traditional broadcasting. As these networks explore ways to optimize cash flow and streamline content, station owners worry about the potential for networks to reduce their programming or even bypass affiliates altogether.
Industry analysts foresee a new regulatory and media landscape over the next few years. With Big Tech dominating the ad market and traditional TV under pressure, broadcasters are eager for change. But how these shifts will unfold, and how the regulatory environment will evolve, remains uncertain. Broadcasters are hoping that by 2025, they will finally have the tools to compete effectively against the tech giants that currently dominate the media landscape. Stay tuned for what could be a transformative period for the TV industry.
