The figures are in—and it appears that Mike Johnson is leading the race to become the next Speaker of the House, at least based on what the political betting markets indicate.
And the margin is significant.
On the widely used forecasting platform Polymarket, a substantial number of political gamblers have placed their bets on Johnson, who was projected at a 90.1% as of Thursday evening.
In contrast, other contenders like Reps. Tom Emmer, Steve Scalise, and Jim Jordan barely made an impact, with each of them averaging just over 1%.
Johnson, the incumbent Speaker of the House, is aiming for reelection in a vote slated for Friday around noon. In November, he secured unanimous backing from House Republicans. The Republican from Louisiana also received an endorsement from President-elect Donald Trump earlier this week.
“The American public requires IMMEDIATE relief from all the harmful policies of the previous administration,” Trump remarked in a Truth Social post a few days ago. “Speaker Mike Johnson is a diligent, devoted, religious individual. He will make the right decisions, and we will keep on WINNING. Mike has my Full & Total Endorsement. MAGA!!!”
Elon Musk, a close ally of Trump, also expressed his support for Johnson recently, stating that he shares the same sentiment as the president-elect on X and assured Johnson of his “complete backing.”
About two weeks back, Musk and Trump led opposition against a bipartisan package that Johnson had meticulously crafted to maintain government funding. Nevertheless, a new bill preventing a shutdown was ultimately approved, seemingly mending their relationship with Johnson.
The Republicans currently hold a narrow majority with a total of 219 seats in the House, while the Democrats have 215. To secure a win, Johnson can afford to lose only one Republican vote if all members are present and participating.
Despite Trump’s backing, several of Johnson’s fellow GOP members have criticized him, claiming he is unsuitable for the position.
Republican Rep. Thomas Massie from Kentucky shared with The Cincinnati Enquirer on Thursday: “I’ve realized that life is too fleeting to engage in phony disputes and to vote alongside things that people know are incorrect.”
“Almost all of my colleagues recognize that Mike Johnson isn’t qualified to be speaker, but no one wishes to say that the emperor lacks clothes,” he continued.
Rep. Victoria Spartz of Indiana also expressed her concerns regarding Johnson in an X post on Monday, noting, “I comprehend why President Trump is supporting Speaker Johnson as he did Speaker Ryan, which is undoubtedly significant. However, we must secure promises that @SpeakerJohnson won’t betray us to the establishment.
“Donald Trump endorsed Paul Ryan and John McCain. President Trump can only save America if we have a speaker with determination, vision, and a strategy – along with a public commitment to the American people on how he plans to advance President Trump’s agenda to drain the swamp,” she finished.
