From the Bloomberg piece, “Record High Job Loss Anxiety in NY Fed Survey.” #economy #jobs #employment #EconTwitter pic.twitter.com/nz2qMr3qNb
— Mohamed A. El-Erian (@elerianm) August 19, 2024
A recent survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reveals that anxiety regarding job security among Americans is on the rise. Released on Monday, the survey indicated that the expected probability of unemployment has increased to an average of 4.4 percent, compared to 3.9 percent the previous year. This represents the highest figure since records began in 2014.
The findings pointed to several concerning labor market trends, highlighting possible weaknesses.
The preliminary revision from the BLS indicates that there were 818,000 fewer job additions from March 2023 to March 2024 than previously estimated.
I draw no conclusions about the economy from this for multiple reasons.
A brief 🧵. (Also, check out the insightful analysis by @bencasselman https://t.co/wIugoDJn9x) pic.twitter.com/7kHDKbILZp
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) August 21, 2024
An increasing number of individuals reported job loss or resignation, adjusted their salary expectations downward, and anticipated working beyond the conventional retirement age. Additionally, the percentage of workers who claimed to be actively job hunting in the last four weeks surged to 28.4 percent, the highest figure since the inception of this data series.
This marks a rise from 19.4 percent recorded in July 2023.
US Workers Express Concerns Over Job Stability
These trends point to possible significant cracks appearing in the labor market.
The NY Fed survey indicates that the number of individuals reporting job searches has reached the highest point in the ten-year history of the survey.
For those employed, the average anticipated likelihood of unemployment also soared to a new high https://t.co/bf1jTTj1I4 pic.twitter.com/yzHvcmJzyW
— Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) August 20, 2024
The implications of this report are concerning, especially during a period of heightened scrutiny by economists and central bankers for any signs of a potential downturn. In July, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3 percent, a significant rise that typically signals an economic recession. This swell in joblessness has created unease, even without corresponding corroborative signals from other labor market indicators.
Despite an uptick in jobless claims, they remain relatively low. Additionally, consumer spending continues to be strong, with data showing that shopping activity persists. The emerging differences in various economic metrics underscore the complexities of the current economic environment.
Analysts are on high alert as they seek a clearer understanding of the labor market’s trajectory.
